The wireless landscape in India has changed considerably over the past few years. While growth in the overall SIM penetration has slowed down, subscribers have now started migrating to superior technologies. Although it has taken time for the 3G story to get going, there is now enough evidence that mobile users are maturing. Here are some facts that highlight this trend:

• The overall 3G subscriber base has increased. Airtel’s proportion of 3G SIMs went up from nearly 4.6 per cent in 2013 to 8.2 per cent by end-2014, while the same for Idea Cellular increased from about 6.7 per cent to 10.8 per cent over the same period.
• Data traffic on the network has increased exponentially. As reported by Nokia, growth in total network traffic over the past couple of years already indicates this: it was approximately 30 petabytes (PB) per month at the end of 2012, and more than 80 PB per month by the end of 2014, which is a compound annual growth rate of about 65 per cent.
• The revenue share from data services has increased to 16.2 per cent for Airtel and 15.7 per cent for Idea for the quarter ended December 2014.

This data growth is expected to keep increasing at a faster rate because of a number of enablers. For one, the continuous mismanagement of spectrum has led to Indian operators owning the least amounts of spectrum compared to global standards, but there now seems to be a clearer spectrum roadmap. The 2015 auction is a clear indicator of the value operators associate with spectrum that is capable of providing data services. So far, only 2100 MHz (and, to some extent, 2300 MHz) has been used to provide data services, but, going forward, we expect to see data services on the 900 MHz, 800 MHz and 1800 MHz bands, and later on the 700 MHz band, which is capable of providing 3G and 4G services. A further 2x15 MHz is expected to be auctioned in the 2100 MHz band (for 3G) by late 2015 or early 2016, thus ensuring significant spectrum and competition in the 3G market. In 2015, Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular are expected to launch 3G using the 900 MHz band in Mumbai and Delhi, respectively, and this could support a much stronger user experience, particularly indoors, where about 70 per cent of data consumption takes place.

For offering long term evolution (LTE) services, operators have already acquired 1800 MHz spectrum in the past couple of auctions, particularly in their respective leadership circles. The government is also expected to make spectrum available in the 700 MHz Asia-Pacific Telecommunity band by 2016-17, which could be very useful for rural roll-outs.

Smartphone availability is another key enabler, as prices have fallen over the past few years, driven by economies of scale, cost efficiencies and competition. They have become increasingly affordable, with LTE devices like Xiaomi Redmi and Micromax Yureka now available for less than Rs 10,000. While these support only time-division LTE, further economies of scale, particularly through increased uptake in China and Europe, is expected to make multiband LTE devices available for less than Rs 10,000 by end-2015 or early 2016.

An aspect that cannot be highlighted enough is the role of video content, with Indian broadband users as inherent consumers. Players across the value chain (mobile operators, over-the-top players, broadcasters, direct-to-home providers, etc.) are recognising the need to deliver on-the-go content and have started making content available in various packages based on different types of user requirements. Taking all this into account, we forecast technology adoption to accelerate, with 3G and 4G subscribers expected to account for more than 40 per cent of all subscribers in India by 2020.

This estimated increase in subscribers will substantially increase network traffic. Based on publically available information, a 3G user’s data consumption in India has reached 600-700 MB per month, while industry benchmarks suggest an LTE user typically consumes twice this amount. This highlights the need for additional network infrastructure in the country as operators are already facing issues with the existing infrastructure. The network is showing signs of congestion at certain times of the day, both at cell sites and backhaul, as well as within specific geographies. The obvious requirements include the expansion of existing macro networks, laying out a separate layer of micro networks, and provisioning for a robust backhaul network.

The macro networks of mobile operators are supported by 350,000-400,000 towers across India, as per various industry sources. Historically, tower companies have proactively built towers to support coverage requirements. However, the new demand will be driven more by capacity, and a demand for infill capacity sites will be seen.

In addition to macro tower sites, a number of operators are considering the augmentation of existing/future networks with a micro-cell network and/or small cells. These will be essential for providing additional capacity at areas that expect high network traffic, such as malls, airports and other dense commercial areas, as well as for in-building coverage. Small cells and/or micro-sites could be a combination of pico/nanocells, femtocells or an IBS solution, depending on specific area requirements, and could include monopoles and lamp posts. Such solutions could have additional significance in a country like India, which is characterised by spectrum fragmentation due to the large number of operators, and high traffic due to population/ subscriber density. While operators are yet to finalise their small cell strategy, tower companies in India could potentially have a role to play in these roll-outs as small cells are essentially a micro-level equivalent of a tower site.

• For instance, STP, an independent tower company in Indonesia, has diversified its business to include small cells. It has been aided in this by significant fibre assets in the main Jabodetabek region (including Jakarta), on the basis of which it has also been able to provide fibre backhaul to its tenants. A related development has been the emergence of distributed antenna systems as a product/service offering by some independent tower companies in advanced network infrastructure sharing markets globally, whereby a number of antennas are backhauled to the same base transceiver station (BTS) or set of BTSs to dynamically allocate network capacity between areas.
• Crown Castle is the largest player in this space, driven by its acquisition of NextG Networks, Inc. in 2011, which provided the former with access to more than 8,500 nodes (over 80 per cent of which are in urban/suburban areas) and more than 7,400 km of fibre. In India, however, fibre availability is a major challenge for operators and tower companies alike. This is especially true for small cells as microwave backhaul is not very efficient in this space, given line-of-sight and other efficiency issues.
• At present, India has 700,000 km of fibre, but further expansion has been problematic primarily due to high right-of-way and other costs, and business case issues.
• The National Optical Fibre Network (NOFN) programme, which aims to deploy 750,000 km of optical fibre to connect gram panchayats, has been facing delays. While the new government has taken some initiatives to hasten the process, like removing indirect taxes on high-density polyethylene used in the manufacture of OFC, and allowing states to implement the NOFN on their own with the cost to be reimbursed later (Andhra Pradesh is the first state to opt for this), it is too early to assess the impact of these moves.

Tower companies typically have a limited role in deploying backhaul, but operators have no choice but to lay fibre. Partnership models between tower companies, operators, other infrastructure companies, and the government will be crucial.

The macro tower sites used by mobile operators were initially envisioned as a telecom real estate industry that supported network roll-outs by mobile operators. However, the increased need for telecom infrastructure represents an opportunity for tower companies to diversify their business models. In a constantly evolving, data-adoptive world, it is clear that operators will need various layers of macro and micro networks to support the expected growth in data traffic. Therefore, tower companies will need to broaden their service portfolios to maintain top line growth.

By Kunal Walia, Principal, Analysys Mason, and Arun Pai, Engagement Manager, Analysys Mason